This Letter to the Editor was submitted by Dr. David Gould, verified Burien Resident.
[NOTE FROM EDITOR: Letters to the Editor do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Burien-News or Daniel Media. If you wish to submit a story, photo, article or letter, please contact us. We look forward to hearing from you.]
We are about three weeks away from the primary and four months away from another major election, and this one has a great deal for voters to consider. All elections are important; thus, being informed and voting should be taken seriously.
One consideration is that demographics in the U.S. continue to change.
- Racial: A continued decline in the percentage of Caucasians with an increase in percentages of minority groups, including Asians, African Americans, and Hispanics. Currently, African Americans make up about 13.6% of the U.S. population, Hispanics make up about 19%, Asian-Americans make up about 5.6%, and there is a small percentage for other populations. Caucasians are about 62%. The U.S. population is expected to increase from about 340 million today to around 400 million by 2040-2050, with about 50% living in eight states and 70% living in 16 states, most of them living in cities. Caucasians will make up less than 50% of the U.S. population within 25 years. The racial forecast for 2050 is about 47.8% White, 25.66% Hispanic, 13.3% Black, 8.2% Asian, and about 4.1% multi-racial.
- Geography: Currently, the U.S. population is about 80% urban/suburban and 20% rural, and over the next 20 to 30 years, there will be continued migration from rural to urban areas.
- An Aging Population: The population is aging (about 10,000 people a day reach age 65 in the U.S. and are expected to do so until the early 2030s). This increase in the elderly population will require more health and financial care, housing, and care in daily living activities.
- Majority-minority: Wikipedia (2019) noted that six states are currently majority-minority: Hawaii, California, Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, and Maryland. An additional 11 states have less than 60% non-Hispanic white population: Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia.
- Birthrate: The U.S. birth rate has been trending downward, and as of 2020, was about 1.64 children per childbearing woman. This is below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age.
- Religion: While the U.S. is one of the most religious Western countries, it is gradually becoming more secular. Pew (2023) reports that 63% of U.S. adults identify as Christian, but this is down from 78% in 2007 or in just 16 years. Over this same period, the percentage of "nones" has increased from 16% to 29%. If this trend continues, fewer than 50% will identify as Christian by the mid-2030s.
- Social Security: U.S. social security funds are expected to diminish by around 2035-2040 without some policy changes. Potential changes include gradually raising the retirement age to 70 or so, increasing taxes, and increasing social security, among others.
- Political: U.S. Senate Seats: By 2040, about 70% of the U.S. population (16 states) will elect 32 U.S. Senators, while about 30% of the U.S. population (34 states) will elect 68 U.S. Senators. By 2040, about 50% of the U.S. population (about 8 states) will elect 16 U.S. Senators, while the other 50% of the U.S. population (about 42 states) will elect 84 U.S. Senators.
Sources:
Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu
Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov
IPCC, https://www.ipcc.ch
Peter G. Peterson Foundation. (2023). http://www.pgpf.org
Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org
World Economic Forum. (2023) http://www.weforum.org
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